Number of people with Parkinson’s seen topping 25M by 2050: Study
Largest increases projected for East Asia, middle-income countries
The number of people with Parkinson’s disease is likely to more than double in the next years, topping 25 million worldwide by 2050, mainly because the world’s population is living longer, a study found.
The largest increases are projected to be in East Asia, where nearly 11 million people may be living with Parkinson’s by 2050, and in middle-income countries, where the number of people with the disease is expected to increase by nearly 2.5 times.
“By 2050 Parkinson’s disease will have become a greater public health challenge for patients, their families, caregivers, communities, and society,” the researchers wrote. “This projection could serve as an aid in promoting health research, informing policy decisions, and allocating resources.”
The study, “Projections for prevalence of Parkinson’s disease and its driving factors in 195 countries and territories to 2050: modelling study of Global Burden of Disease Study 2021,” was published in The BMJ.
Parkinson’s is a neurodegenerative condition marked by motor and nonmotor symptoms that worsen over time. While its prevalence, or number of cases in a given time, is rising, “predictions of future prevalence in many countries and regions are still lacking,” according to a BMJ Group press release.
Diagnosis, research, advocacy
“Projecting the future number of people with Parkinson’s disease is important for several reasons,” a pair of scientists in Germany wrote in a linked editorial. Those reasons include improving diagnosis, ensuring enough doctors and treatments, funding research, and advocating for better care, they wrote.
With this in mind, a team led by researchers in China used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 to predict the prevalence of Parkinson’s worldwide, regionally, and nationally by age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI) from 2021 to 2050. The SDI is a measure of social and economic development.
They projected that by 2050, 25.2 million people worldwide would be living with Parkinson’s, more than double the number in 2021. The main driver of this increase was population aging (89%), followed by population growth (20%) and changes in disease prevalence (3%).
The overall prevalence of Parkinson’s was expected to rise 76% from 2021 to 2050, reaching 267 cases per 100,000 people. However, when adjusted for age, prevalence was estimated to increase by 55%, reaching 216 cases per 100,000 people in 20250.
Countries in the middle SDI group were projected to see the largest increases in both overall prevalence (by 144%) and age-adjusted prevalence (by 91%) from 2021 to 2050.
The highest number of Parkinson’s cases will likely be in East Asia (10.9 million), according to the study, followed by South Asia (6.8 million), while the lowest were predicted to be in Oceania (11,000) and Australasia (86,000).
Western Sub-Saharan Africa was predicted to experience the highest growth, by 292%, from 2021 to 2050, while central and eastern Europe were projected to experience the smallest increase in Parkinson’s prevalence (by 28% each).
People aged 80 and older were projected to have the highest Parkinson’s prevalence by 2050 (2,087 cases) and the highest increase in the number of cases (by 198%).
The projections highlighted a growing sex disparity in Parkinson’s, with the male-to-female prevalence ratio increasing from 1.46 in 2021 to 1.64 in 2050. This suggests that Parkinson’s will continue to be more common in men than in women over time.
“To the best of our knowledge, this study provides the first comprehensive projections of the global, regional, and national prevalence of Parkinson’s disease until 2050,” the researchers wrote.
In the linked editorial, the scientists wrote that while these predictions “highlight an urgent public health challenge,” there’s a need for more advanced predictive techniques that can help healthcare systems, policymakers, and researchers plan for the future with more reliable data.
“Adopting rigorous modelling techniques is essential to guide resource allocation, inform policy decisions, and advance research efforts,” they wrote, noting that such techniques should “capture the true complexity of chronic disease progression, ultimately leading to more effective interventions and improved patient outcomes.”
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